{"id":1480,"date":"2026-03-18T14:49:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T14:49:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/?p=1480"},"modified":"2026-03-18T14:57:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T14:57:08","slug":"macroeconomic-impact-of-a-commodity-shock-on-variables-monitored-by-central-banks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/macroeconomic-impact-of-a-commodity-shock-on-variables-monitored-by-central-banks\/","title":{"rendered":"Macroeconomic impact of a commodity shock on variables monitored by central banks"},"content":{"rendered":"

The\u00a0year\u00a02026\u00a0started\u00a0as\u00a0a\u00a0year\u00a0of\u00a0consolidation\u00a0for the\u00a0fixed\u00a0income\u00a0market,\u00a0supported\u00a0by global\u00a0economic\u00a0resilience\u00a0and an\u00a0inflation\u00a0dynamic\u00a0finally\u00a0under control.\u00a0Our\u00a0baseline scenario\u00a0anticipated\u00a0a “soft landing”\u00a0driven\u00a0by\u00a0Artificial\u00a0Intelligence,\u00a0which\u00a0could\u00a0act\u00a0as\u00a0a\u00a0powerful\u00a0productivity\u00a0catalyst: in the United States, GDP\u00a0was\u00a0estimated\u00a0at\u00a0around\u00a02%, with\u00a0inflation\u00a0expected\u00a0to drop\u00a0below\u00a0the\u00a0psychological\u00a0threshold\u00a0of 2% in the\u00a0fourth\u00a0quarter. In Europe,\u00a0growth\u00a0remained\u00a0more\u00a0subdued\u00a0at\u00a00.8%,\u00a0but\u00a0the\u00a0rapid\u00a0cooling\u00a0of consumer prices\u00a0towards\u00a01.5%\u00a0would\u00a0have\u00a0allowed\u00a0central\u00a0banks a more\u00a0accommodative\u00a0liquidity\u00a0management. The\u00a0outbreak\u00a0of the war\u00a0contributed\u00a0to\u00a0altering\u00a0this\u00a0scenario. The surge in energy prices led the market to\u00a0revise\u00a0the pricing of policy rates: more\u00a0than\u00a0one\u00a0hike\u00a0for the ECB and\u00a0only\u00a0one\u00a0cut\u00a0for the FED.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0outbreak\u00a0of the war,\u00a0therefore,\u00a0had\u00a0the\u00a0sharp\u00a0upward\u00a0movement\u00a0of oil\u00a0as\u00a0its\u00a0primary\u00a0effect. To\u00a0attempt\u00a0to estimate\u00a0its\u00a0impact on GDP, CPI, and policy rates,\u00a0we\u00a0implemented\u00a0simulation\u00a0models\u00a0focused\u00a0on\u00a0various\u00a0scenarios\u00a0outlined\u00a0by the trend of the\u00a0variables\u00a0monitored\u00a0by\u00a0central\u00a0banks.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Let’s\u00a0start with\u00a0<\/span>US GDP.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The shock\u00a0appears\u00a0to be -0.2% in Q2 and -0.3% in Q3 and Q4. The\u00a0causes\u00a0of\u00a0this\u00a0reduction\u00a0are to be\u00a0found\u00a0in the\u00a0combination\u00a0of the\u00a0increase\u00a0in oil prices (simulated\u00a0at\u00a0110 USD\/bbl), a\u00a0reduction\u00a0in demand, and an\u00a0increase\u00a0in credit risk.\u00a0<\/span>On an\u00a0annualized\u00a0basis,\u00a0this\u00a0scenario\u00a0would\u00a0entail\u00a0a\u00a0total\u00a0impact of\u00a0approximately\u00a0-1%, with 2026 GDP\u00a0still\u00a0remaining\u00a0positive\u00a0at\u00a0+1%.\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the Eurozone, the impact\u00a0would\u00a0be\u00a0greater, with a\u00a0marked\u00a0decline\u00a0especially\u00a0in the\u00a0third\u00a0quarter and a\u00a0total\u00a0annual\u00a0impact of -1.5%,\u00a0which\u00a0would\u00a0bring\u00a0GDP to a range\u00a0between\u00a0-0.5% and 0%,\u00a0effectively\u00a0a technical\u00a0recession.<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Shock scenario EU GDP<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Regarding<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>inflation<\/span>, the models show an\u00a0<\/span>estimated<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>increase<\/span>\u00a0for the United States in the 3.1%\/3.2% range over the\u00a0<\/span>next<\/span>\u00a02 quarters,\u00a0<\/span>subsequently<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>returning<\/span>\u00a0to the 2.1% area in the second quarter of 2027.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A\u00a0<\/span>similar<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>movement<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>is<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>seen<\/span>\u00a0in Europe with a “landing” in the 2.8%\/2.9% area.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

As<\/span>\u00a0for\u00a0<\/span>monetary<\/span>\u00a0policy in America,\u00a0<\/span>even<\/span>\u00a0in the face of the\u00a0<\/span>described<\/span>\u00a0shocks, the models do\u00a0<\/span>not<\/span>\u00a0lead to a concrete\u00a0<\/span>paradigm<\/span>\u00a0shift, with 2\u00a0<\/span>cuts<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>expected<\/span>\u00a0in\u00a0<\/span>two<\/span>\u00a0out of\u00a0<\/span>three<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>scenarios<\/span>. In the\u00a0<\/span>third<\/span>\u00a0scenario, the rate\u00a0<\/span>would<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>remain<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>unchanged<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>throughout<\/span>\u00a02026.\u00a0<\/span>Obviously<\/span>, the\u00a0<\/span>three<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>scenarios<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>differ<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>based<\/span>\u00a0on the\u00a0<\/span>expected<\/span>\u00a0duration in quarters of the oil price shock (from 0 to 2 quarters).<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In Europe, the reaction\u00a0<\/span>is<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>quite<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>similar<\/span>, with a baseline scenario\u00a0<\/span>that<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>anticipated<\/span>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>cut<\/span>\u00a0in the\u00a0<\/span>fourth<\/span>\u00a0quarter. In\u00a0<\/span>particular<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>it<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>should<\/span>\u00a0be\u00a0<\/span>noted<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>how<\/span>\u00a0the “recessive”\u00a0<\/span>effect<\/span>\u00a0of demand\u00a0<\/span>contraction<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>prevails<\/span>\u00a0in the models,\u00a0<\/span>outweighing<\/span>\u00a0the\u00a0<\/span>inflationary<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>effect<\/span>\u00a0of oil.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In\u00a0conclusion, the decisive\u00a0elements\u00a0appear\u00a0to be the duration of the\u00a0conflict\u00a0and,\u00a0above\u00a0all, oil\u00a0remaining\u00a0in the 100\/110 area and gas\u00a0above\u00a050\u00a0euros.\u00a0Even\u00a0assuming\u00a0an\u00a0average\u00a0of\u00a0two\u00a0quarters of commodities\u00a0at\u00a0these\u00a0levels, the\u00a0decrease\u00a0in demand and\u00a0consumption\u00a0would\u00a0have\u00a0a\u00a0greater\u00a0impact\u00a0than\u00a0inflation,\u00a0thus\u00a0providing\u00a0central\u00a0banks with\u00a0few\u00a0motivations\u00a0to\u00a0raise\u00a0rates. In Europe, in\u00a0particular, the negative\u00a0effect\u00a0seems\u00a0to be\u00a0greater,\u00a0increasing\u00a0the\u00a0probability\u00a0of a\u00a0recession.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With the rise in yields\u00a0across\u00a0the\u00a0entire\u00a0curve in\u00a0this\u00a0phase, the best\u00a0buying\u00a0opportunity\u00a0in the government bond\u00a0sector\u00a0of the last 3 to 4\u00a0years\u00a0is\u00a0being\u00a0created,\u00a0especially\u00a0in the 5\/10-year\u00a0segment\u00a0for\u00a0both\u00a0core and\u00a0peripheral\u00a0rates.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The\u00a0year\u00a02026\u00a0started\u00a0as\u00a0a\u00a0year\u00a0of\u00a0consolidation\u00a0for the\u00a0fixed\u00a0income\u00a0market,\u00a0supported\u00a0by global\u00a0economic\u00a0resilience\u00a0and an\u00a0inflation\u00a0dynamic\u00a0finally\u00a0under control.\u00a0Our\u00a0baseline scenario\u00a0anticipated\u00a0a “soft landing”\u00a0driven\u00a0by\u00a0Artificial\u00a0Intelligence,\u00a0which\u00a0could\u00a0act\u00a0as\u00a0a\u00a0powerful\u00a0productivity\u00a0catalyst: in the United States, GDP\u00a0was\u00a0estimated\u00a0at\u00a0around\u00a02%, with\u00a0inflation\u00a0expected\u00a0to drop\u00a0below\u00a0the\u00a0psychological\u00a0threshold\u00a0of 2% in the\u00a0fourth\u00a0quarter. In Europe,\u00a0growth\u00a0remained\u00a0more\u00a0subdued\u00a0at\u00a00.8%,\u00a0but\u00a0the\u00a0rapid\u00a0cooling\u00a0of consumer prices\u00a0towards\u00a01.5%\u00a0would\u00a0have\u00a0allowed\u00a0central\u00a0banks a more\u00a0accommodative\u00a0liquidity\u00a0management. The\u00a0outbreak\u00a0of the war\u00a0contributed\u00a0to\u00a0altering\u00a0this\u00a0scenario. The surge in energy prices led the market to\u00a0revise\u00a0the pricing of policy rates: more\u00a0than\u00a0one\u00a0hike\u00a0for the ECB and\u00a0only\u00a0one\u00a0cut\u00a0for the FED.\u00a0 The\u00a0outbreak\u00a0of the war,\u00a0therefore,\u00a0had\u00a0the\u00a0sharp\u00a0upward\u00a0movement\u00a0of oil\u00a0as\u00a0its\u00a0primary\u00a0effect. To\u00a0attempt\u00a0to estimate\u00a0its\u00a0impact on GDP, CPI, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":396,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1480","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1480"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1480\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1483,"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1480\/revisions\/1483"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/396"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1480"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1480"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1480"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}